Comparing Party System Change by Jan-Erik Lane, Paul Pennings

By Jan-Erik Lane, Paul Pennings

This quantity brings jointly comparative reports and in-depth case reports that examine the range of occasion procedure swap in Europe. In so doing it offers a version for swap which demanding situations orthodox perspectives of political evolution.

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If what parties offer seems acceptable, then the electorate accepts it—for the time being. If circumstances change or if parties fail to deliver, then the voter looks for something different. Lipset and Rokkan argued in their model that inherited loyalties counted decisively on these special and non-recurrent occasions. Perhaps this was true of the industrial society with its strong cleavage patterns. But the argument is less valid in relation to the post-industrial society where large chunks of the electorate do not make up their mind until the eve of the election day.

1 Matrix of electoral change between two elections one needs panel data covering a pair of elections; recall data tends to be less reliable, as they underestimate the degree of change in individual electoral behavior. This is the kind of data that is suitable for estimating party switching. However, estimating the gross volatility may be problematic, since surveys in general have difficulties in tracing the nonvoting electorate. There are further difficulties involved in estimating the overall volatility since surveys are not always designed to take into account those leaving the electorate; thus estimates of overall volatility from panel data surveys could be biased towards underestimating the extent of real change.

Curtice, J. and Taylor, B. : The 1992 Election and Beyond, Aldershot: Dartmouth. O. (1982) Shifting Involvements: Private Interest and Public Action, Oxford: Martin Robertson. Holmberg, S. (1981) Svenska Väljare, Stockholm: Liber. (1984) Väljare i Förändring, Stockholm: Liber. Holmberg, S. and Gilljam, M. (1987) Väljare och Val i Sverige, Stockholm: Bonniers. A. and Dittrich, K. Flanagan and R A. , Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press: 267–97. Kaase, M. and Newton, K. (1995) Beliefs in Government, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

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